Social Security Expected to Be Theme of Bush Reelection Bid

September 8, 2003

"George W. Bush has the habit of changing the subject—using a moment when all eyes are on him to frame issues in a new way, one that maximizes public support and consigns the opposition's (and the press's) preoccupations to irrelevancy," writes Michael Barone in a special for U.S. News & World Report. In his special, "A Knack For Reframing," Barone predicts that Bush will devote 2004 to increasing the public's awareness and acceptance of individual retirement accounts for Social Security.

Barone writes: "My … prediction is that Bush will put the spotlight, probably in his 2004 State of the Union speech, on his proposal for individual investment accounts in Social Security. … Bush is known to believe that this was a winning issue for him in 2000. He will pledge, as he did then, not to change the benefits of current Social Security recipients and those due to reach retirement age soon. His focus will be on the young and whether the system will be there for them. The Social Security trustees estimate that Social Security payouts will exceed revenues in 2018. They estimate further that the Social Security trust funds will be exhausted and no longer able to pay full benefits in 2042. I see Bush arguing that changes must be made now to make sure benefits are available when young people retire.

"Democrats disagree. In the Clinton years, many Democrats took a favorable view of individual investment accounts in Social Security. But since 2000, they have lined up in lockstep and opposed all changes. They are convinced the issue works for them, even though they have a hard time identifying a single race it won for them in 2002. Republican candidates like Elizabeth Dole have presented detailed plans for individual investment accounts. Her opponent, former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles, opposed all change and said the system was in fine shape until 2037. If, like Bowles, you were born in the 1940s, 2037 sounds like a long way off, a year you'll never see. But if you're 30 years old, it sounds like about the time you're going to retire. On the stump, Dole liked to say, 'Here's Erskine Bowles's plan for Social Security.' Then she held up a blank sheet of paper.

"Many Republicans in Congress are afraid of the Social Security issue, and some have said that they oppose 'privatization'—the term Democrats like to use. But polls have shown large margins in favor of individual investment accounts, even when the stock market was tanking. Look for Bush to frame Social Security not as an old person's issue but as a young one's—and for Social Security to be a big issue in the contest next year for the White House."

Similarly, in a New York Times memo, Richard Stevenson referred to personal accounts as a major part of Bush's grander scheme for an "ownership society" as a centerpiece issue for campaign 2004.

Stevenson writes: "Analysts and people with ties to the White House say the most likely possibility is that Mr. Bush will revive his proposal to remake the Social Security system to add private investment accounts.

"Mr. Bush already seems to be trying out … a sales pitch for such a plan as part of a broader philosophy of what he calls an 'ownership society' for people at all income levels.

"'We want more citizens owning their own home,' Mr. Bush said on Tuesday at a fund-raiser in St. Paul. 'We want people to own and manage their own retirement accounts. We want people to have control over their own medical accounts. We want there to be more ownership of small businesses in America because we understand when America and Americans own something, he or she has a vital stake in the future of our country.'"

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