Races to Watch

November 4, 2002

With the 2002 elections coming down to the wire, Social Security is becoming a major issue in several important races. House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt has called the elections "a referendum" on proposals to allow younger workers to privately invest a portion of their Social Security taxes through individual accounts. Whether or not that holds true, Democrats across the country have focused on Social Security, accusing Republicans of trying to "privatize" the program. Most Republican candidates have tried to duck the issue, engaging in semantic debates about the meaning of "privatize." But here and there, some candidates have held their ground, giving voters a clear choice. The outcome of these races could give a strong indication of whether there will be a push for Social Security reform next year, or whether the issue is still "the third rail of American politics."

North Carolina Senate: The Campaign for America's Future, a labor-backed umbrella group opposing individual accounts, has called the Senate campaigns in North and South Carolina "bellwethers" on the issue. In North Carolina, Erskine Bowles has made his opposition to "privatization" a centerpiece of his attack on Elizabeth Dole, featuring a barrage of commercials warning that Dole wants to "gamble" Social Security money in the stock market. Dole has not backed off at all, and has attacked Bowles for not having a plan of his own to save Social Security. She has taken to showing a blank piece of paper as the "Bowles Social Security Plan."

South Carolina Senate: The South Carolina Senate race has likewise been a major target of individual account opponents. The Democratic candidate, Alex Sanders, has been running ads equating individual accounts with Enron. The Republican candidate Lindsay Graham has been outspoken in his support for individual accounts. Lindsay is one of four Republican Senatorial candidates in close races that have signed a pledge, sponsored by SocialSecurityChoice.org to support individual accounts.

Georgia Senate: Another candidate to sign the pledge in support of individual accounts is Republican Congressman Saxby Chambliss, who is reportedly closing in on incumbent Democratic Senator Max Cleland. The race has focused more on national security issues than Social Security, but Cleland has been running standard Democratic attack ads on the issue.

New Hampshire Senate: Representative John Sununu, who defeated incumbent Senator Bob Smith in a Republican Primary earlier this year, has been a strong supporter of individual accounts, even sponsoring legislation to create accounts. His opponent, Governor Jeanne Shaheen, is opposed to individual accounts and is running the standard attack ads. Sununu seemed to stumble for a time on the issue, becoming bogged down in debate over the word "privatization," but has lately begun counterattacking Shaheen for not having a plan of her own.

Missouri Senate: Former Republican Representative Jim Talent was once one of the strongest supporters of individual accounts, even sponsoring pro-account legislation, but has tried hard to avoid the issue in this campaign. That has not stopped Talent's opponent, incumbent Senator Jean Carnahan, from attacking him on the issue. Attacks on Social Security "privatization" have been a large part of her media strategy.

Pennsylvania House 15: Perhaps no candidate in the country has been more forthright in his support for individual accounts than Representative Pat Toomey. Despite a district that leans Democratic and contains a large number of senior citizens, Toomey has continued to aggressively push his position. His opponent, Ed O'Brien, has taken the usual attack route in a campaign that has drawn outside interest from both supporters and opponents of individual accounts.

West Virginia House 2: Democrats once hoped to use the campaign against Shelley Moore Capito as a model for how to use Social Security to defeat incumbent Republicans. Capito is another Republican who floundered at first, but has begun counterattacking and has remained committed to support for individual accounts. Democrats are putting almost all their last minute media into the issue.

Indiana House 2: Former Representative Jill Long Thompson may have been the first candidate in the country to air an ad attacking her opponent, Chris Chocola, for supporting "privatization." Social Security has remained a major issue in the race. This is an open seat and vital to democratic hopes of retaking the House.

Florida House 22: Representative Clay Shaw is a triple target for anti-account forces. He chairs the Social Security subcommittee of the House Ways and Means Committee; he has sponsored legislation creating individual accounts; and, in 2000, he won his district by only 599 votes. His opponent, Democratic nominee Carol Roberts, is attacking Shaw on the issue.

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