One Election Lesson

November 8, 2000

With the results of the Tuesday presidential election still in doubt, no one can say how Social Security reform will fare in the near term. But USA Today's Susan Page, in drawing "Eight lessons learned from the campaign," concluded that Social Security privatization is now in the mainstream of American politics. Any politician can now run on privatization without fear of the "third rail."

"Lesson 6. Social Security: No longer the third rail of politics in America."

"For 65 years, America's retirement program has been political gold for Democrats. Franklin Roosevelt proposed it, Republicans opposed it, and a political weapon was born. "That the Democrats attack Republicans on Social Security -- that only happens every two years," jokes former Republican national chairman Haley Barbour. In the past, GOP candidates from Barry Goldwater to Ronald Reagan who talked about changing the system found themselves on the defensive."

"The political cliché calls Social Security the "third rail" of American politics: grab it and be electrocuted. Then Bush proposed partial privatization of the system. He would allow some of the Social Security payroll tax to be diverted to individual investment accounts. Gore hammered the proposal as risky and made inroads among elderly voters in Florida and elsewhere. A late commercial ridiculed Bush for a gaffe when he criticized Democrats of treating Social Security like 'some kind of federal program.'"

"However, the substance of Bush's plan had broad appeal among voters younger than 50, especially baby boomers, who have heard a decade of warnings about the system's future bankruptcy. A majority of voters said in exit polls they supported investment accounts. Pollster John Zogby concludes, 'The third rail has been broken.'"

In national exit polls, Social Security privatization achieved majority support among all voters, and substantial support even among those voting for Vice President Gore. If the Vice President could not even convince all his own voters that personal accounts were dangerous, then the electricity has truly gone out of the third rail of politics.

Do you support or oppose a plan in which individuals could invest some of their Social Security taxes in the stock market?
	All Voters	Gore Voters	Bush Voters
Support	57	32	66
Oppose	39	68	27

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