Races to Watch: The Results Are In

November 12, 2002

Last week's issue highlighted several races to watch. Today, the election results are in. How did these candidates fare?

Despite attacks by opponents of reform, support for personal accounts did not prove to be a liability to most congressional candidates.

North Carolina Senate
Social Security reform played a central role in this race. Republican Elizabeth Dole publicly advocated personal accounts, despite strong attacks by Democratic nominee Erskine Bowles. What had been projected to be an extremely close race turned out to be anything but, with Dole winning 54 to 45 percent. Dole's campaign, in which she didn't retreat from supporting personal accounts while pointing out her opponent's refusal to put forward a plan of his own, may turn out to be a model for reform-oriented candidates.

South Carolina Senate
Republican Lindsey Graham was hit with campaign ads saying, "Imagine turning your Social Security fund into risky stocks like Enron. That's what could happen if Lindsey Graham has his way." Nevertheless, in another race that was supposed to have been close but wasn't, Graham defeated Democratic nominee Alex Sanders by 55 to 44 percent, a strong 11 point victory.

Georgia Senate
Republican Congressman Chambliss was one of the eight Senate candidates who signed a SocialSecurityChoice.org pledge in support of personal accounts, and pulled off one of this year's most surprising victories. Incumbent Senator Max Cleland appeared a prohibitive favorite and utilized now-standard attacks on Chambliss for supporting personal accounts. Nevertheless, support for reform did not prevent Chambliss from rolling to a strong 53 to 46 percent victory.

New Hampshire Senate
Republican Rep. John Sununu continued to support personal accounts despite attacks by incumbent Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen. Shaheen herself claimed the "trust fund is in good shape for the next 40 years" and that John Sununu's "Wall Street campaign contributors" would "make millions" from personal accounts. Sununu, who defeated incumbent Senator Bob Smith in a Republican Primary, went on to an unexpectedly strong 51 to 47 percent victory.

Missouri Senate
In one of the closest margins of the election, former Rep. Jim Talent defeated Senator Jean Carnahan. Talent, once on the forefront of Social Security reform sponsoring legislation for individual accounts, was often forced to play defense against "privatization" attacks made by Ms. Carnahan. Nevertheless, Talent defeated Carnahan by 50 to 49 percent.

Pennsylvania House 15
Undaunted by criticism, Rep. Pat Toomey was steadfast in his principles for personal accounts, saying we should "allow individual workers voluntarily to put a portion of their payroll taxes into personal savings accounts that they would own, control and invest." Toomey was a prominent Democratic target in his rematch against 2000 opponent Ed O'Brien, but increased his margin of victory from 53 to 57 percent.

West Virginia House 2
First-term Rep. Shelley Moore Capito was the target of some of the most aggressive anti-reform television ads, and was initially shaky in her responses. Nevertheless, despite her first-term status in traditionally Democratic and senior-heavy West Virginia, Capito defeated Democratic challenger Jim Humphreys by 60 to 40 percent.

Indiana House 2
The Social Security debate between Republican Chris Chocola and former Democrat Rep. Jill Long Thompson gained national coverage. While caught flat-footed by Democratic attacks early in the campaign, Chocola remained outspoken regarding the need for reform, saying, "The dual problem of low rate of return and bankruptcy cannot be solved within the context of the current system." Chocola won by a surprisingly strong 50 to 46 margin.

Florida House 22
Considering Republican Rep. Clay Shaw's narrow 599-vote victory in 2000 and prominent stance in favor of Social Security accounts, Democratic nominee Carol Roberts was aggressive in attacking Shaw on Social Security. Shaw himself ran pre-emptive defense ads explaining his position on personal accounts, rolling up 60 percent of the vote in the 2002 election. This is even more impressive considering the senior-heavy composition of Shaw's congressional district.

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