Top Pollster Sees "A Clear Message From Voters on Social Security"

December 7, 2000

Pollster Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Research declares that "Campaign 2000 has not yet produced a President, but it has decisively changed the politics of Social Security forever."

"Amidst all the arguing about chads and dimples, many people have overlooked what may be the most significant statistic to come out of Florida this November: a majority (52%) of Florida's senior citizens voted for George W. Bush. Keep in mind; this is the same George W. Bush who talked early and often about his proposal for reforming Social Security."

"Al Gore took the 'safe' position on Social Security by defending the status quo and wound up attracting votes from only 46% of Floridians over the age of 65. So much for the notion that talking about Social Security reform is the equivalent of political suicide!"

"Nationwide, the candidates battled to a draw among seniors (Gore 50%, Bush 47%). Obviously, senior citizens and all voters consider many factors when casting their vote. However, the fact that a Presidential candidate can make Social Security reform a centerpiece of his campaign and still pick up half of the senior vote represents a sea change in the political dynamics of the issue."

"Prior to the election, a Portrait of America telephone survey found that 56% of voters favored the Bush reform proposal. On Election Day, the Voter News Service found a nearly identical 57% of voters supported the idea of letting workers invest some of their Social Security payments to provide for their own retirement. Not surprisingly, younger voters are far more enthusiastic about such reform than senior citizens."

"All of this suggests that it is now safe for candidates to talk about thoughtful approaches for reforming the New Deal's most popular program. In fact, we may soon reach the point where it is politically dangerous to be perceived as standing in the way of reform. However-- advocates of reform beware-- the fact that America's voters are ready for a grown-up debate on the issue doesn't mean that reform itself is imminent."

"The issue is tricky, even for candidates who side with the majority. For one thing, while many seniors will vote for a candidate who talks about changing Social Security, the generation gap is alive and well on this issue. Most working Americans think that relying on the government for promised Social Security benefits is riskier than letting workers invest for their own retirement. Retired Americans take the opposite view. Most retired Americans think that Social Security is still a good deal for today's workers. Most workers disagree."

"Sooner or later, those who advocate reform will have to build some common ground on this issue. At the moment, younger Americans agree with seniors that benefits promised to current retirees and those about to retire should be fully protected under any reform proposal. There is no political support for any reform that threatens benefits already promised to seniors by the federal government."

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