January 28, 2005

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Cato/Zogby poll: Majority backs individual accounts for Social Security

WASHINGTON--A majority of Americans agree that younger workers should be allowed to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes in individual accounts, according to a new poll conducted by Zogby International for the Cato Institute.

Despite a drumbeat of criticism for weeks by congressional Democrats and a concerted public relations campaign by powerful interest groups such as the AARP against Social Security choice, 51 percent of those polled by Zogby support the introduction of individual accounts. Only 39 percent opposed individual accounts being part of any Social Security reform.

Not surprisingly, the results showed a split along age lines, with younger voters (61 percent among those under 30, 58 percent of those under 50) strongly in favor of individual accounts, while those over 65 were opposed (55 percent against). However, opposition by seniors dropped to just 45 percent if they were assured that their own benefits would not be affected.

Reflecting the sharp partisan divide nationally, opinion of individual accounts also split along political lines. Republicans were overwhelmingly united behind the reform proposal, which is a priority of President Bush's second-term agenda (74 percent supporting, 14 percent opposed). Most Democrats remain opposed with 61 percent saying they are against individual accounts. However, a surprisingly strong minority among Democrats (more than 30 percent) favor individual accounts.

Independents polled leaned toward individual accounts, 45 percent to 40 percent, with a high proportion of undecided.

While few voters (14 percent) agreed with President Bush that Social Security was in "crisis," an overwhelming majority (61 percent) said that the New Deal-era system was facing "serious problems" that required "major changes." Few voters (5 percent) accepted the argument that Social Security is fine or could be fixed with only "minor, incremental changes" (19 percent).

When asked whether they believed private investing or the current Social Security system is riskier, voters split nearly evenly. Roughly 41 percent thought private investment is riskier, because "benefits could go down depending on how investments perform."

But slightly more (44 percent) thought the current Social Security system was riskier "because it cannot pay all the benefits promised." Again, voters split by age, with young people believing Social Security is riskier (52 to 39 percent) and seniors believing private investment is riskier (46 to 31 percent).

Voters were also supportive of another proposal rumored to be part of a Bush Social Security plan. By a 61 to 23 percent margin, voters backed a proposal to hold future benefit growth to the rate of inflation.

"Americans clearly understand the need for fundamental Social Security reform," said Michael Tanner, director of the Project on Social Security Choice at the Cato Institute, which commissioned the survey. "They are open to the message that individual accounts give workers greater ownership and control over their retirement income."

The poll of 1,004 likely voters was conducted in mid-January and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent